When it comes to sports betting, picking an upset is one of the most gainful skills one can have. Picking an upset in the NBA can be difficult, but with the right knowledge and intelligent tracking of current trends, you can find the right path.
What is an Upset in an NBA Game?
An upset in sports is a result that goes against common choices. In the NBA, when the less favored team in a matchup wins, that is considered an upset.
For example, in Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals between the Toronto Raptors and the Golden State Warriors, the Raptors were considered the underdog – not expected to win against their opponent. By defeating the Warriors and winning the NBA Championship, the Toronto Raptors completed their upset.
This is what the lines looked like in their Game 6 matchup:
- Toronto Raptors: +120
- Golden State Warriors: -139
As one can see from the lines, the Golden State Warriors, represented by the negative, are the favored side.
Meaning the Toronto Raptors, represented by the positive value, are the underdogs. It is clear by these values that betting on the underdog is always more profitable.
Unfortunately longer odds means that betting on the upset is much riskier, despite the fact that you always stand to gain more from the bet. Profitability is great, but only if you can intelligently select the right underdogs.
How to Predict an Upset in the NBA?
We are going to go over some proven strategies for predicting upsets in the NBA. It is important to consider all of the following when making your picks as each strategy is meant to be used in tandem.
Be careful when making your bets, as only approximately a third of NBA matches tend to end in an upset.
Refer to Statistics
As with all forms of virtual betting, we begin with one of the most important strategies to follow. While trusting your instincts, even as a seasoned player, is valuable, your predictions should always be backed by statistics.
When making predictions, the most valuable information we have is that which is already available.
Of course, you should take into account your personal instinct, friends’ thoughts, and other factors, just be sure to do your research before making a final bet.
If you’re a seasoned player, you likely already look at the statistics in order to inform your decision. Recent form for a team is certainly important, as momentum can carry even the weakest teams over their competition. There is still more to consider though:
- Team schedule is important. Players generally perform better on extended home stands, versus long, out-of-conference trips. Refer to the SOS stat, which rates a teams remaining strength of schedule.
- Player health and injuries are also important. Key players that are unavailable can massively swing a teams odds.
- Take into account recent play. You could be banking on the known quality of a single player, but if they’re on a cold streak it might not be the right time to back them.
Always be detailed in your research. There is always more to a team’s record and odds than meets the eye. Maybe a team has been on a five-game losing streak and are now the underdogs. However, the return of a key player from injury could certainly boost their chances, which isn’t always shown on the lines.
Anomalies occur on the lines and in team statistics all the time. It is up to the player to find out which they should consider staying ahead of the public.
Take Into Account the Team and Its Player
Recognizing team playing style is a more advanced way of recognizing how teams will fare when looking at an NBA matchup. If one can understand how certain styles of play fare against the other, you’ll have the upper hand when placing your bets.
Betting on the point spread?
Two hard-nosed defensive teams with little scoring output will probably produce a low-scoring output compared to two run-and-gun offenses. When the underdog has a style of play that is easily taken advantage of by the favorite, you’d do best to avoid taking the upset.
By understanding styles of play, you can perform even better in other ways like prop betting.
Take a look at the best NFL player props for the season.
To go along with understanding play style, you should also be able to understand which individual players are key to a team executing their game plan. The Golden State Warriors are a historically deadly team from three due to their ball movement. If their assist leader Stephen Curry is out of the lineup, you can expect their quality of play to drop off.
On the other hand, if Stephen Curry is in the game but will be guarded by Fred Vanvleet – a historically successful defender against Curry – the mismatch could favor Vanvleet and his team despite the lines.
Don’t forget to consider coaching in the equation as well. Coaches go through ups and downs just like any player. Their record against other coaches can be a telling sign as well.
A coach like Steve Kerr is clearly top tier. However, it is more likely for a creative, risk-taking coach like Nick Nurse to build a plan to succeed over more rigid and militant coaching styles like Terry Stotts.