NFL Sports Databases
Using historical data to figure out the best way to et on football can take a lot of different shapes and forms. For starters, you can use stats sites to look at the game itself and the size of the rosters.
In football, the tosters are huge, way bigger than any other major sport. This means that there are so man micro-statistics available to break down with databases that anyone willing to put in the work can find unexplored areas of the game where gambling edges exist.
Since the game has three different phases (offense, defense, and special teams), there are virtually endless avenues of digging through databases to find hidden gems of info. Let’s look at some of the common approaches to get you started.
Offense Stats
The offensive line is huge, and not just in stature. Every team’s ability to put up points lives and dies with their offensive line. It impacts how much time the QB has to make plays and how much room the RBs have to find holes.
Remember, every play in football begins with a play-call from a coach or player. Someone is making these critical decisions and if we know what’s most likely, it gives us an edge.
Here are some things to consider from a database perspective:
Offense
- The ratio of pass protection vs run blocking. Does this change at home or on the road? Does this chance in indoor games vs outdoor games with inclement weather?
- Does the offensive coordinator have a history of being pass-first or run-first? Compare pass-attempts and rushing-attempts for all of his previous teams and current team
- Consider focusing on the first-half of games as this is when most teams are trying to stick to their original game plan whereas teams will change and make edjustments at halftime depending on whether they are winning or losing
- Does the team historically rush or pass more against divisional rivals?
- Which teams pass the most/least in games with inclement weather?
- Which teams kick the most/least field goals in inclement weather?
- How often will a coach gamble on 4th down and in what part of the field or what quarter of the game?
Defense Stats
- How many times per game a team blitzes?
- Which player(s) do they normally send on blitzes? This is important if the opponent has an inexperienced tight end or running back tryig to defend against it.
- What down are they most likely to blitz?
- In what situations does the team most often blitz?
- How often does a team employ zone vs man-to-man defense?
- Which team has the most interceptions, strips, recovered fumbles, tackles for losses, kick blocks?
- Does the defensive coordinator prefer to double team the opposing team’s top receiver?
- How frequently do the outside linebackers play cover defense on running backs or receivers?
- How many points does the team give up in fare vs poor weather conditions?
- Are they better against the run or pass?
Special Teams Stats
- How often does the team send pressure on punts?
- How many times has a team had their own kicks blocked?
- How many average punt return yards do they gain or give up?
- What percentage of the time will the coach let his kicker try a long range field goal on 4th down? Is this impacted by weather conditions?
- How many kick/punt return yards do they average per game?
- How many kick/punt return TDs have they scored or given up? Is this impacted by weather conditions?
Everything listed here is to give you basic level guideline of how the statistics within a database can give you valuable information. To dig even deeper you can combine different questions into a new query and see if anything significant arises. If you want to start betting on the NFL then you’ll want to know if it is legal or not.
MLB Sports Databases
The best way to use MLB databases for gambling is to start by focusing on something specific. Since every play begins with the ball in the pitcher’s hand, many databases will zoom in on an aspect of how different types of pitchers, namely starters, middle-relievers and relievers tend to do in various circumstances over a large enough sample size.
Included in that breakdown is whether they are right or left0handed and how that factors in when they face a right vs left-handed batter.
Even if you want to look at hitters and how they bat in different situations, it is always going to be valuable information to know what putcher they are facing and how that hurier tends to perform in that scenario.
In addition to looking at pitchers and hitters, baseball also is unique to all other sports in regards to how much each ballpark effects the game. Since no two stadiums are the same digging into how their differences affect the stats can be really valuable in betting.
Things to consider when accumulating data for MLB:
- Pitching matcup result
- Team stats going into game )W/L record, OBP, BA, etc)
- Home or Away for specific team
- Starting pitchers
- Starting pitcher stats going into game (ERA, WHIP etc)
- Opening moneyline
- Closing moneyline
- If playoffs, which game in series
- End of game Box Score
NHL Sports Databases
Hockey statistics, while fairly in-depth in their ownright are generally less complex than the other major sports, mainly because scoring is lower. Most databases and most queries will deal with teams playing in any (or a combination of) these categories:
- Head to head matchup
- Back to back games
- Divisional/conference game
- Home vs away record
- Power play and penalty kill efficiency
The deeper levels for team-to-team comparisons include looking into how each team’s goalie has performed against this specific opponent and in which building. Pay close attention to any other recent changes of the coaching staff and impactful rookies who would otherwise not factor into the histoorical data of the teams.
Be sure to do the data analysis for these resultson both moneyline and puckline results as this will factor into your conclusions in big way. Some sites might only list +,- 1.5 on puckline historical data but it is possible to take shifted puckline results for games that are +,- 2.5 if you so desire.
Decode the Data, Pick Up the Profit
It takes time to learn how to understand and use sports databaese. It might seem overwhelming at first but trust us, it isn’t as confusing as it looks. All it takes is some practice and a good understanding of what we covered in this guide.
And remember, the differet online databases all have FAQs explaining how their systems work. YouTube video tutorials are also a great resource for figuring thigns out.
Once you become familiar with how these sites work, you can use the numbers, categories and statistics as tools to help answer whatever questions you wish to ask. That’s the beauty of it all. By thinking outside the box you can work backwards, input all the pertinent data and solve a questions that can give you a statistical edge on your wagers.
Just remember, don’t get swayed by alluring answers from small sample sizes. It’s important to use big data sets to see if what you’re seeing is statistically relevant or just an anomaly.
One thing you can be certain of, the more you dive into the world of sports and numbers, the better you will become at understanding the odds and picking winners.