With prop betting you need to remember that there is a trade-off in value. On the one hand, sportsbooks generally charge a higher commission (vig) on proposition bets. This means that when you win a bet you are paid slightly less than what they would offer on a “standard” general-bet.

For example, on an event with an expected even-money outcome (coin flip), a correct wager on a general bet (i.e. Over/Under) will pay you more than an even-money outcome for a prop bet.

On the other hand, because there are so many prop bets set everyday by the sportsbooks, there is a much higher likelihood that some of their lines are less accurate. That means you have a chance to take advantage and win more.

To get that edge and shift the likelihood of success in your favor, work hard on developing the following habits:

Study, Study, Study

Bookmakers spend the majority of their time setting accurate general bet lines for favourite/underdog, projected point spread and Over/Under. Since they have less time to spend on the long list of prop bets, you, as the savvy bettor have the opportunity to find very favourable lines.

Find Reliable Sources of Information

The internet is a virtually infinite data well. The amount of bloggers, vloggers, websites, journalists, data analytics, etc is vast. Not everyone has valuable insight so spread your view, be objectively critical, and keep track of your sources.

Over time you can find people who are tapping into the right types of details that can help you make smart wagers.

Think Outside the Box

Are there some intangibles in the game that will have a big impact? Is the event outdoors? What will the weather be? Are the star players on a hot streak? Cold streak? Is there a favourable match-up that one player is likely to exploit? Is someone injured but playing or returning from injury?

Look for Moving Lines

Point total lines for star athletes tend to move upwards as casual bettors tend towards betting they will exceed the given line. This pushes the line higher up. You can learn to spot this with a keen eye and take advantage with an Under bet.

Super Bowl Prop Betting

For gamblers who love betting props, the Super Bowl is like unleashing a swarm of kindergarteners into a candy shop. There are props for almost anything you can think of. The exotic bets, as mentioned above, sometimes have nothing to do with the game at all. In 2010, for example there was a live for how many times The Who’s Pete Townshend would do his patented windmill arm-swing move on his guitar. It really does show how limitless prop betting can be. If there is action, people will gamble. Simple

There are lines for every single player. There are lines for every possible points spread and point total outcome. There are lines for how many yards the first play will be and how many yards for the first score. Want to talk about the first score? There are lines for literally every possible way a team can score first.

Lovers of the long-shot were jumping out of their sears just for years ago, when Payton Manning’s Broncos conceded a safety just 12 seconds into Super Bowl XLVIII. In case you were wondering, that paid +4000 (a $100 bet netted a $4000 win).

Basically every single statistic you can measure, you can bet on. And then there are the exotic bets which are even wilder. They run the spectrum from what topics the announcers will talk about to what colour shirt the coachers will wear.

Wildest Exotic Prop Bets

Every so often the internet will burn bright with news of something so audacious it requires photographic evidence (presumably not photoshopped) to prove validity.

We saw a perfect example of this in 2011 when an anonymous punter in St. Louis decided to wager a combined $500, on two separate bets, that his beloved Cardinals would make it to the World Series and that they would win it all. What made the prop bet so fascinating was the fact that the Cardinals were five games out of a wild card spot with just 15 games left in the season. Talk about a longshot.

The first $250 bet paid 250:1 and the second paid a hefty 999:1. All told, he won a combined $375,000.

Here’s another good one.

In 2005 a man in Liverpool bet £200 at 125-1 odds that Xabi Alonso, at some point during the season, would score a goal from his own end. The bookies loved it and even claimed publically afterward “When he placed the bet we thought it was the easiest £200 we had ever made.”

Can you guess what happened next? This:

That original £200 paid out $4,3880 USD .

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.